Philip Cohen, a sociologist at the University of Maryland, recently wrote a thought provoking piece in the Atlantic about the decline in marriage. The chart at right illustrates the marriage trend from 1940 to present with projections for the possible paths for the future. If nothing changes, presuming the current rate of decline simply continues, marriage will reach 0 in 2042.
So What?
Cohen rightly notes that the continued rapid decline toward zero is unlikely. He suggests the future labeled taper is the most likely future over the next 30 years.
- Were you aware of the rate of decline since 1940, especially its accelerated pace since 1990?
- How has this shift impacted your local congregation’s ministry and mission? What role does the trend play in your parish’s long range planning?