So What Faith

Greg Smith

The PC(USA) is Missing 2.6 Million People! (#2055)

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I have spent the majority of my life in the Mainline Protestant denomination known as the Presbyterian Church (USA). Since I’ve invested so much of myself in this tradition, I strive to tell the whole story of how the denomination has arrived at its present state so that those involved can use this information as they plan for a brighter future.

Mainline Decline

Much has been written about Mainline decline in general, and about the decline of the Presbyterian Church (USA) specifically. I am one of the writers who continues to contribute to this growing body of literature.

Presbyterian Church (USA) Decline

Yesterday, sociologist Ryan Burge tweeted that the Presbyterian Church (USA) (along with its Mainline siblings) is in worse shape than most statistical analyses suggest. Burge’s issue is with the most common methodology for calculating denominational decline over time. The generally accepted method chooses a time period then evaluates the percentage of decline in the denomination’s membership during that time period. Burge, however, suggests a more accurate analysis would require the adjustment of the denomination’s baseline membership number based on population growth. (Yesterday I explored how this approach impacts the United Church of Christ: The UCC is Missing 1.3 Million People!)

Infographic by Greg Smith

In his tweet thread, Burge first showed that from 1987 to 2021 the Presbyterian Church (USA) declined 58% according to denominational records. Then, he showed that based on population growth per the U.S. Census Bureau, the denomination’s membership would have risen to 3.8 million if the growth rate had been 0.0%. Instead, the denomination ended this period at 1.2 million which is a decrease of 68.4% or approximately 10% higher than the commonly used number. (Interestingly, the difference between the two measurements was an identical 10% in the United Church of Christ.)

So What?

The widely publicized decline of 58% is accurate. The denomination’s total membership is less than half of what it was 30+ years ago.

It is also an incomplete analysis. A better comparison over time would be percentage of the American population belonging to the PC(USA). This is the number from Burge’s analysis – a number that is 10% higher (68% vs 59%). The difference in the two numbers is significant.

In 1990 the Presbyterian Church (USA) had 3,788,009 members. Adjusted for increases in population and assuming a 0% growth rate, the denomination would have reached 3.8 million members. The actual number for 2020, however, was just 1,245,097.

As Burge noted and as other analysis consistently show the decades long decline of Mainline Protestantism has impacted all Mainline denominations. I’ve singled out the PC(USA) for this post because I’ve spent more than half of my life in it.

Acknowledging this change and understanding its causes is essential to charting a future marked by growth and vitality.

More on Presbyterian Church (USA) Decline

To better appreciate the decline in the PUCSA, check out some of my posts on the topic:

More on Ryan Burge

To better appreciate Ryan Burge’s work, consider reading some of my posts that mention his scholarship: