I am part of the Mainline Protestant denomination known as the United Church of Christ. I believe that telling our story is a part of how we learn to better understand our present state and better plan for a brighter future.
Mainline Decline
Much has been written about Mainline decline in general, and about the decline of the United Church of Christ specifically. I am one of the writers who continues to contribute to this growing body of literature.
United Church of Christ Decline
Today, sociologist Ryan Burge tweeted that the United Church of Christ (along with its Mainline siblings) is in worse shape than most statistical analyses suggest. Burge’s issue is with the most common methodology for calculating denominational decline over time. The generally accepted method chooses a time period then evaluates the percentage of decline in the denomination’s membership during that time period. Burge, however, suggests a more accurate analysis would require the adjustment of the denomination’s baseline membership number based on population growth.
In his tweet thread, Burge first showed that from 1987 to 2021 the United Church of Christ declined 52% according to denominational records. Then, he showed that based on population growth per the U.S. Census Bureau, the denomination’s membership would have risen to 2.1 million in 2021 if the growth rate had been 0.0%. Instead, the denomination ended this period at just under 800,000, which is a decrease of 61.9% or approximately 10% higher than the commonly used number.
So What?
The widely publicized decline of 52% is accurate. The denomination’s total membership has roughly been cut in half over the last 30+ years.
It is also an incomplete analysis. A better comparison over time would be percentage of the American population belonging to the UCC. This is the number from Burge’s analysis – a number that is 10% higher (62% vs 52%). The difference in the two numbers is significant.
In 1990 the United Church of Christ had 1,599,212 members. Adjusted for increased in population and assuming a 0% growth rate, the denomination would have stood at 2.1 million members. The actual number for 2020, however, was just 773,539.
As Burge noted and as other analysis consistently show the decades long decline of Mainline Protestantism has impacted all Mainline denominations. I’ve singled out the UCC for this post because it is my tradition.
Acknowledging this change and understanding its causes is essential to charting a future marked by growth and vitality.
More on UCC Decline
To better understand the decline in the United Church of Christ, consider reading some of my posts on the topic, including:
- Too Many Ministers in the United Church of Christ? (2023)
- UCC Membership Decline: 2,193,593 to 773,539 (2022)
- UCC Decline Enters 7th Decade (2020)
- 6 Decades of Decline in the United Church of Christ (2018)
- Dwindling Membership: The United Church of Christ from 1965-2015 (2016)
- More Decline in the Mainline: UCC in Florida (2012)
More on Ryan Burge
To better appreciate Ryan Burge’s work, consider reading some of my posts that mention his scholarship:
- End of Presbyterianism: Farewell (2023)
- The Only Major Denomination That Keeps Growing (2022)
- Top 10 Books of 2022 (includes his book: 20 Myths About Religion and Politics in America.) (2022)
- Mainline Decline: 1990 to 2020 (2022)
- Lifelong Retention: A Religious Challenge (2022)
- Great New Books – May 2021 (includes his book: The Nones: Where They Came From, Who They Are, and Where They Are Going ) (2021)
- Mainline: The 5 Percent? (2019)