Ryan Burge’s tweets on May 9, 2023, about the decline in membership in the Presbyterian Church (USA), including his suggestion the denomination is less than 20 years away from dissolving, has generated numerous conversations across social media and beyond.
The Story of Presbyterian Decline
As someone who has spent more years in the Presbyterian Church (USA) than any other denomination, I’ve been aware of the denomination’s decline for many years. And, I’ve written extensively about it here on So What Faith, including
- The Median Presbyterian (PCUSA) Congregation (January 2023)
- PC(USA) Membership – 30 Years of Decline (January 2023)
- Mainline Decline: 1990 to 2020 (May 2022)
- PC(USA) Membership Declines by 62% (April 2022)
- PC(USA) Membership Declines by “Only 50K” (June 2020)
- Presbyterian Decline: PCUSA -The First 35 Years (March 2020)
By reading the titles alone, it is easy to grasp the significance of the decline. I created the image below for a presentation and later included it in an April 2022 blog post to help illustrate the 62% decline.
The 4% Assumption
Burge is a sociologist. He’s well known for his ability to explain religious trends with eye opening visuals. In fact, I’ve mentioned his work previously on several occasions, including his latest book 20 Myths About Religion and Politics in America, which I honored as one of the Top Books of 2022 (check out my review to learn more about the book and about Ryan Burge).
Burge’s May 9, 2023 tweets begin with a recap of the story I’ve shared: the PC(USA) declined from 3.1 million members to 1.1 million members in less than 40 years. He then explains that it is actually worse than those numbers suggest because the rate of decline has “accelerated significantly” in recent years rising from around 1.5% to 4%. If this continues, the denomination will fall below 1 million members by 2030 and below 500 thousand by 2040. Burge concludes, “there’s a good chance they have to dissolve in less than 20 years.”
So What?
We’ve been talking about the seriousness of this trend for quite some time. Back in 2011, several Presbyterian pastors authored a letter that labeled their denomination as “deathly ill.“
I’m grateful that Burge’s remarks have sparked renewed interest in the severity of the situation in the PC(USA) and more broadly in Mainline Protestantism (for example, Mainline Decline: 1990 to 2020). Back in 2017, I shared Ed Stetzer’s prediction that the Mainline would cease to exist by 2039.
Those of us involved have a role to play in shaping the future. The story may end up being one of Decline, Death, or Reform. Or, it could be one of Death and Resurrection. Or it could be one marked by increased unity, innovation, and deepening impact. Or, perhaps it will be something all together different from what I and others imagine.
Toward A Future With Hope
As for me, I’m all in. I’ve recently recommitted to doing my part to live out my own (Mainline Protestant) faith and to live in to my calling as a pastor.
I give thanks for the PC(USA) and trust that its future will be something quite different from a 4% annual decline in membership till death.
God is Still Speaking. May people of faith be attentive in their listening and bold in their acting.