Sixteen months ago I wrote a post titled “6 Decades of Decline in the United Church of Christ,” which presented a detailed analysis of the decline in number of congregations and number of members from the time the denomination was formed in 1957 through 2017. (I was surprised to learn this was my second most popular post of the 2010s since I published over 1,800 posts during the decade).
In recent days, I learned that the first year of the denomination’s 7th decade resulted in continued decline.
6 Decades of Decline
To recap, from 1957 to 2017
- Total number of congregations: declined by 40.2% (8,283 to 4,956)
- Total number of members: declined by 61.1% (2,193,593 to 853,778)
7th Decade
According to “A Statistical Profile 2019,” produced by the UCC Center for Analytics, Research, and Data the denomination consisted of 4,882 congregations and 824,866 members in 2018.
Comparing 2018 to 2017, one quickly notes the decline for the first year of the denomination’s seventh decade was
- Total number of congregations: declined by 2.1% (4,956 to 4,882)
- Total number of members: declined by 3.4% (853,778 to 824,866)
These one year losses continue a longer trend of congregations declining more slowly than membership. Additionally, the rate of membership decline has grown each decade since 1977
- 1977-1987 – 6.9%
- 1987-1997 – 13.5%
- 1997-2007 – 20.4%
- 2007-2017 – 25.5%
With year one of decade 7 beginning with a decline of 3.4%, the data suggests that the current decade will result in the greatest membership decline in the history of the denomination.
The overall story of decline from the time the denomination was established through the latest statistics now available is as illustrated below.
Current Reality – Small and Smaller
According to “A Statistical Profile 2019,” the average UCC congregation consisted of
- Membership: 171
- Worship attendance: 67
- Total income: $228,034
Over half (52.6%) of all congregations had an average worship attendance of 1-50 persons.* Over 84% (84.2%) of all congregations had an average worship attendance of less than 100, which reflects an 8.7% increase since 2010 and a 22.8% increase since 2000.
Only one half of one percent (0.5%) or one out of every two hundred congregations had an average worship attendance of 400 or more.**
So What?
The United Church of Christ is not alone. Mainline Protestant denominations have declined significantly since 1957.
In 2017, Ed Stetzer projected that Mainline Proetstantism would end in 2039. He made this assertion by projecting the aggregate rate of Mainline Protestant decline into the future.***
The macro story of decline is one that is well chronicled. Given this ongoing narrative of decline it is increasingly important to tell stories of congregations that defy this trend, and to learn from their stability and/or growth.
For my previously published thoughts on starred comments in this post, please consider checking out the following posts:
*”Majority of UCC Congregations Worship 50 or Fewer” (February 14, 2019)
** I have learned a great deal through my experiences in two UCC congregations with average worship attendance significantly beyond 400: Naples United Church of Christ (served on staff from 2011-2015) and Cathedral of Hope United Church of Christ (member since 2017). My story of joining Cathedral is included in “Our Search for a Church is Over” (February 12, 2017). Naples United Church of Christ is mentioned in numerous posts (use the search box to locate those of interest).
*** “Will Mainline Protestantism Disappear by 2039?” (May 15, 2017)