For years, I’ve heard people claim that 10,000 churches are closing every year in America.
A quick web search shows that this big, bold, round number can be found on its own or, more often, as the high end of a range on dozens of websites. These sites include pieces by largely unknown bloggers alongside articles by those many consider to be authorities in field. For example, last year Thom Rainer – a leading Evaneglical voice and the former president and CEO of LifeWay Christian Resources – wrote
Between 6,000 and 10,000 churches in the U.S. are dying each year. That means around 100-200 churches will close this week. The pace will accelerate unless our congregations make some dramatic changes.
Not Exactly
Taylor Billings Russell – Research Specialist for the United Church of Christ’s Center for Analytics, Research and Data (CARD) – recently explored the origin of this widely quote statistic. In short, the 6,000 to 10,000 churches closing a year statistic lacks credibility. Academic research into this topic suggests that in recent years 1% to 2% of American churches close. Put differently the best estimate among researchers is that 3,850 to 7,700 congregations closing a year, which works out to around 75 to 150 congregations a week.
So What?
No one I know has sought to advance the argument that the number of churches in America is growing. As we continue in an extended state of decline, we must remain committed to speaking truthfully about historical trends and to stating as accurately as possible data about current realities.
Because not all denominations have the same interest in or rigor with record-keeping and because not all churches affiliate with denominations, networks, or other entities that capture data about closings, it is impossible to provide an authoritative answer to the question, “how many churches close each year in America?” One can, however, feel good that in recent years the number is far less than 10,000.
- In your denomination, what percent of churches close each year? (note: Billings Russell computed the rate in recent years to be close to 1% in the Presbyterian Church (USA), close to 1% in the Evangelical Lutheran Church in American, and around 0.5% in the United Church of Christ)
- Share a statistic you’ve heard recently about the decline of Christianity in America. Bonus: Let us know if you have any sense of whether or not that statistic is based on credible research or not.